According to projections from the European climate service, 2024 is now “virtually certain” to become the hottest year on record, marked by extreme heatwaves and powerful storms. Average global temperatures are set to exceed pre-industrial levels by over 1.5°C for the first time in a calendar year, a symbolic threshold indicating the severity of human-induced climate change, with additional contributions from natural phenomena like the El Niño pattern.
These record-breaking temperatures underscore the urgency for action at the upcoming UN climate conference, COP29, in Azerbaijan. Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society, emphasized that the new record serves as a stark warning for governments to take immediate measures to limit further warming.
Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service predicts that 2024 will likely surpass the previous record set in 2023, with temperatures reaching at least 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. While a year surpassing the 1.5°C limit does not technically violate the Paris Agreement, as that goal targets a multi-decade average, each annual breach brings the world closer to exceeding it in the longer term. The UN has also recently cautioned that, without strengthened climate policies, global temperatures could rise by over 3°C by the end of the century.
Early-year temperatures were further boosted by El Niño, a natural event that began in mid-2023 and released additional heat into the atmosphere. While cooler La Niña conditions are expected to develop soon, possibly bringing a temporary dip in global temperatures, the impact remains uncertain.
Professor Ed Hawkins of the University of Reading warns that with greenhouse gas levels continuing to climb, more temperature records are likely ahead. “Warmer temperatures are intensifying storms, making heatwaves hotter, and increasing extreme rainfall, with significant consequences globally,” Hawkins said. “Reaching net-zero emissions is essential to stabilize temperatures and curb the costs of these disasters.”