Rising Global Crude Prices Set to Drive Up Fuel Costs in Kenya

Rising Global Crude Prices Threaten to Push Petrol and Diesel Costs Higher for Kenyan Consumers

Fuel prices in Kenya are once again under the spotlight as global crude oil prices climb sharply, pushing motorists, businesses and households to brace for higher costs at the pumps. Recent market data shows that the international cost of crude oil — the raw material from which petrol, diesel and kerosene are refined — has risen from roughly Ksh 7,740 to about Ksh 8,643 per barrel, the highest level seen in several months. This jump, if it persists through the next pricing cycle, is likely to translate into significant upward adjustments in local fuel prices when the next review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) is released.

This trend is not happening in isolation. Global oil markets have been volatile in recent weeks and months largely due to geopolitical tensions that have stirred concern among traders and analysts. For example, escalating conflict fears between major oil producers like the United States and Iran have driven crude prices to multi‑month highs, as markets price in risks of supply disruptions. Brent crude — one of the key global benchmarks — surged to levels not seen since mid‑2025, something that would normally signal higher fuel prices for consumers worldwide.

In Kenya’s case, the link to global crude prices is direct. Kenya imports almost all its petroleum products, so petrol stations rely on fuel brought in from overseas. EPRA sets local pump prices monthly, closely tracking changes in the average landed cost of imported fuel, the Kenyan shilling’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, shipping and insurance costs, taxes, distribution margins, and other levies. When crude oil becomes more expensive internationally, the landed cost rises and this squeezes fuel importers’ margins, often leading to higher prices at the pump.

In the most recent EPRA pricing cycle, the authority lowered prices, giving motorists a modest reprieve as super petrol, diesel, and kerosene recorded small declines. But that relief now looks short‑lived if elevated global prices persist into the next review. Analysts and market watchers are watching the crude price window that EPRA uses to set local prices — if the Ksh 8,643 price holds, consumers could see noticeable increases in fuel costs once the new rates are published.

So why are crude oil prices rising? The answer tends to combine supply, demand and geopolitical risk. On the supply side, concerns about disruptions — whether due to conflict, sanctions, or reduced output from major producers — tend to tighten the market. On the demand side, global economic activity and seasonal consumption patterns influence how much oil countries need and are willing to pay for it. Political uncertainty, such as tensions in the Middle East or shifting trade policies, adds an extra layer of volatility because traders respond to the possibility of supply bottlenecks even if physical supply has not yet been disrupted.

For Kenyans already feeling the pinch of high living costs, a rise in fuel prices doesn’t just mean more expensive petrol for motorists — it ripples across the economy. Transport costs go up, which in turn pushes up the price of goods and services. Freight and logistics operators tend to adjust their charges to absorb higher diesel costs, and even everyday items like food can become more expensive because of higher distribution costs. In an economy where many households are sensitive to price changes, this feeds directly into inflationary pressures and can strain family budgets.

There are also currency dynamics at play. A weak Kenyan shilling increases the local cost of crude oil, since fuel importers pay for it in U.S. dollars. Even if global crude prices were stable, a weaker shilling would still push up landed costs, compounding the impact of any international price climb. A strong shilling cushions some of the pressure from rising global crude costs, though oil markets’ broad bullishness often limits this effect.

Looking ahead, the big question for businesses and consumers alike is whether the current surge in crude oil prices is temporary or the beginning of a longer trend. Some analysts believe that geopolitical risks will continue to dominate oil markets in the near term, keeping prices elevated, while others point to underlying supply surpluses that could emerge if tensions ease. For now, though, the message for Kenyan drivers is one of caution: more expensive fuel at the pump may be on the way, and that could have broader implications for the cost of living and day‑to‑day expenses across the country.

Ultimately, as global markets continue to respond to geopolitical shifts and economic indicators, the local fuel pricing mechanism in Kenya will reflect those changes — meaning that what happens on distant oil trading floors can very much affect how much you pay for a litre of petrol at your nearest station.