“Examining Kamala Harris’ Defeat: Was It the Candidate or the Campaign?”

The Harris campaign had aimed to rebuild the coalition that drove Biden’s 2020 win, focusing on core Democratic groups like Black, Latino, and young voters, along with expanding support among college-educated suburban voters. However, exit polls show she struggled to secure these blocs, losing 13 points with Latino voters, two points with Black voters, and six points among voters under 30, although these trends may evolve as votes continue to be counted.

Independent Senator Bernie Sanders noted the decline in support from working-class voters, stating, “First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well. While Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change.”

Although women largely supported Harris over Trump, her lead did not reach the margins her campaign anticipated. She also fell short of her goal to sway suburban Republican women, with 53% of white women voting for Trump. Democrats had hoped her focus on reproductive rights, especially in the wake of the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling, would yield a decisive win. However, 54% of female voters chose Harris, less than the 57% who had backed Biden in 2020.

Early on, Harris attempted to make the race about Trump rather than herself, portraying it as a referendum on his return to office. But as the campaign progressed, she shifted away from Biden’s narrative of Trump as a threat to democracy, instead promoting a positive message about safeguarding personal freedoms and the middle class. In the campaign’s final days, Harris resumed her criticism of Trump, labeling him a “fascist” and drawing on comments from Trump’s former Chief of Staff, John Kelly, about his admiration for Adolf Hitler.

“Kamala Harris lost this election when she pivoted to focus almost exclusively on attacking Donald Trump,” said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. “Voters already know everything there is to know about Trump—they wanted to hear about her plans.”

In the end, the coalition Harris needed to overcome Trump never materialized. Her defeat highlighted a broader issue for the Democratic Party, underscoring that the challenges extend beyond an unpopular president.